Basic HTML Version
132
MOTORINDIA
l
January 2012
The decline of
leadacidbatteries
In historical terms, the death of
the flint tool, cooking by dung and
other bygone technologies, occurred
very rapidly. This was because sev-
eral factors conspired to bring in the
better alternative, and this created a
multiplier effect. So it is with lead
acid batteries. To this huge industry
and the magazines that write about it,
there is a long-term, if unspectacular,
future for the lead acid battery in ve-
hicles – the main use.
Conventional “reciprocaur” car
sales are still increasing in number,
thanks to China and other emerging
nations. At first sight, there seems
to be ongoing use of lead-acid traction battery power
in all electric bikes, forklifts, boats and mobility vehi-
cles for the disabled – say, 35 million vehicles yearly.
The same power is used, not for traction, in 70 million
conventional vehicles yearly. (www.IDTechEx.com/
eVehicles)
However, every month another threat appears that
seems modest, but, on closer examination, constitutes a
serious nail in the coffin for an industry that has served
the world for well over one hundred years. Recent ex-
amples are the advent of better “stop start” in regular
vehicles, replacement of regular on-road vehicles with
electric vehicles, introduction of lithium-ion batteries
into forklifts, e-bikes and the like, impending use of
fuel cells in fleets, China suddenly shutting down most
of its lead acid battery production, battery suppliers and
governments focussing more of their R&D on alterna-
tives, tougher pollution laws worldwide, consumers
demanding much better vehicle performance and su-
percapacitors and other devices replacing batteries or at
expert article
least reducing the required lithium-
ion battery size and cost in vehicles
as lithium-ion battery costs tumble.
This is creating a multiplier effect
in reducing the need for lead acid.
Investors see the lead acid battery
industry as standing on an escalator
going down – faster and faster – even
though sales statistics have yet to re-
flect this.
Stop-start needing better
batteries
Stop-start – automatically switch-
ing off the engine when the vehicle
stops, however briefly – is a way of
improving fuel consumption by gar-
nering a useful reduction in emissions. However, for ve-
hicles frequently stopping and starting, like urban cars,
buses and delivery vehicles, the lead acid battery has
difficulty coping, particularly at low temperatures. The
problem is compounded when these “micro-hybrids”
seek to capture and regenerate braking energy. Lithium-
ion batteries are therefore increasingly preferred as bet-
ter microhybridisation emerges.
Hybrid electric vehicles are really taking off, particu-
larly industrial and commercial vehicles that currently
constitute 60 per cent of the expenditure on electric ve-
hicles by land, sea and air. Add to that the Toyota Prius
which is headed for a one million-a-year sales level
in only a few years from now. Also look at the huge
number of new hybrid and pure electric models becom-
ing available and the likelihood that urban pure electric
on-road vehicles will be very popular by the end of the
decade.
On-road fleets are even likely to make automated bat-
tery swapping and the alternative of hydrogen fuel cells,
By Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman, IDTechEx