On behalf of the International Rubber Study Group, I wish to welcome you all to Singapore and thank you for your commitment in making this World Rubber Week such a success.
We are blessed by the presence, under one roof, of all segments within the rubber value chain from farmer to rubber product end user and this offers us a unique opportunity to discuss and address some of the major challenges facing our industry and try to make the rubber world a better place for everyone in the future.
There is no doubt that as we enter the fifth year of disappointing global demand growth in response to the sub-par macroeconomic recovery following the Global Financial Crisis, we are into a mid-term period of excess capacity throughout the rubber industry. This is a general phenomenon seen by most commodities, including the metals, which has been exacerbated by the continued economic slowdown in China.
However, the longer term horizon remains strong for rubber as the continued industrialisation, urbanisation and increased personal mobility within the major developing economies of China and India is forecasted to continue apace throughout the coming decade.
He said that with around 70 per cent of natural rubber and 50 per cent of synthetic rubber going into tyre production, global rubber consumption is expected to follow the increased tyre manufacture accordingly.
In defence of this point, he referred to the forecasted growth in tyre sales and vehicle parc. Passenger car tyre sales are expected to rise from 1.23 billion units in 2014 to 1.72 billion units by 2023, a 35 per cent growth, while commercial vehicle tyre sales would rise from 479 million units in 2014 to 727 million units by 2023, a 52 per cent growth. The current 1.2 billion vehicles in use around the world is predicted to rise to as many as 1.6 billion towards the end of the decade. China alone is set to reach a target of around an extra 250 million vehicles over the same period. The 2014 consumption of 11.9 million tonnes of natural rubber for all markets, tyre and non-tyre, is projected to grow to 16.5 million tonnes by 2023. The comparable figures for all synthetic rubber markets are 16.8 million tonnes in 2014 rising to 21.5 million tonnes by 2023, he added.
Dr. Evans further said that IRSG has recently launched a project in the pilot phase on Sustainable Natural Rubber. This high-profile initiative would assist the whole value chain to become a more transparent and fairer environment to the benefit of everyone, including farmers.
* Text of the speech delivered at the World Rubber Week held in Singapore in March 2015