The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) released the Monthly Vehicle Registration Data for the Month of July’20.
July’20 Retail Sales
Commenting on how July’20 performed and on the new dataset included by FADA, Ashish Harsharaj Kale, FADA President, said: “As India continues to open up, the month of July saw better registrations compared to June, though on a YoY basis Auto Sector recovery is yet to be seen anywhere near normal. Current market conditions are still not indicative of the actual demand situation on an all India level and retails continue to de-grow in huge double digit despite the low base of last year.
Rural market though continues to show strong growth as monsoon continues its good spell. Tractor, Small Commercial Vehicles and Motorcycle sales positively impacted with the monsoon progress and spread.
Banks and NBFCs though flush with high liquidity are still having a cautious approach towards funding auto retail affecting the Demand revival especially in segments of CV, 3W and 2W. Vehicle funding percentage has fallen by 10-15% in many segments increasing the initial contribution beyond reach of many customers, despite having the intent to buy.
The Indian Auto Industry and its eco-system of Suppliers, OEM’s and Dealers can have a wide positive impact on Consumer Sentiment by return to Pre-Covid Volumes.
FADA once again appeals to the Government to announce demand boosting policies as this will ensure speedier Auto Demand. Auto Industry eagerly awaits incentive based scrappage policy and this will be the fillip to Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles sales.
FADA Institute of Automobile Marketing & Research
Bringing further transparency in Auto Retails, FADA Institute of Automobile Marketing & Research for the first time is releasing Vehicle Registration based OEM market share. This will not only shift market share calculation from wholesale to actual retails, which is the Global Practise, but will also bring further clarity in OEM wise inventory at dealers’ end. It will also help all the stakeholders, viz., Suppliers, OEMs, Banks/NBFC and Dealers get real time demand status thus helping them in better planning.
FADA Institute of Automobile Marketing & Research will now be regularly bringing in deeper analysis on various aspects of Auto Retail in India. In times to come, it will also bring OEM wise market share at State Level thus bringing in more transparency.”
Outlook for August
With a Caveat of no further lockdowns, especially in auto manufacturing hubs, the outlook for the month is positive in comparison to July.
August brings with itself the beginning of long festival season. With Onam and Ganesh Chaturthi in next few days, FADA hopes that Auto Industry will start its recovery journey in a linear manner.
Extreme Caution is required by OEM’s towards wholesale billing being in tune with retail sales to avoid Dealer Inventory build-up.
With Retail Sales still at 60-70% levels YoY despite the low base of last year, Dealers are battling on many fronts to navigate through this unprecedented crisis and disproportionate inventory. The excessive interest cost could further put many on the border of business survival.
The full year Outlook continues to remain negative with a projected de-growth in retail sales in the range of 15%-35% across various segments except Tractors which looks set to clock a positive annual growth.
Chart showing Vehicle Registration Data for July’20 with YoY comparison can be found below:
Disclaimer:
1. The above numbers do not have figures from AP, AN, MP, LD & TS as all these States/UT’s are not yet on Vahan 4.
2. Vehicle Registration Data has been collated as on 07.08.20 and in collaboration with Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Government of India and has been gathered from 1,235 out of 1,445 RTOs.